Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
